Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.